SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs Awaiting Fed Decision, Weak Supply and Demand Restrict Price Volatility [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of September 15, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract opened at 273,880 yuan/mt and exhibited a high-level fluctuating trend. By the midday close, the price hovered around 274,000 yuan/mt, rising slightly compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. Overall market sentiment remained cautious, with trading volume failing to expand significantly.

During the same period, LME tin futures prices performed relatively weakly. At 10:00 Beijing time, the price was $34,735/mt, down $220 from the previous trading day. The intraday high reached $34,990, while the low touched $34,635, indicating cautious overseas market sentiment toward further tin price increases.

From a macro perspective, the market focused on the upcoming US Fed interest rate meeting. Interest rate futures have priced in expectations for three interest rate cuts totaling 75 basis points within the year. US dollar fluctuations and uncertainties in trade negotiations have led the base metal market into a rangebound pattern. In the short term, SHFE tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, constrained above by weak demand and inventory pressure, while supported below by tight supply and cost factors. Investors need to closely monitor the outcome of the US Fed meeting for guidance on global liquidity expectations, as well as progress in production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa region and actual improvements in domestic downstream demand.